Moving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle

Title
Moving Toward the Circular Economy: The Role of Stocks in the Chinese Steel Cycle
Author(s)
Stefan Pauliuk
Heming Wang
Daniel B. Müller
Year
2012
Source
Environmental Science & Technology, Volume 46, Issue 1, Pages 148-154
DOI
10.1021/es201904c
Abstract
As the world's largest CO2 emitter and steel producer, China has set the ambitious goal of establishing a circular economy which aims at reconciling economic development with environmental protection and sustainable resource use. This work applies dynamic material flow analysis to forecast production, recycling, and iron ore consumption in the Chinese steel cycle until 2100 by using steel services in terms of in-use stock per capita as driver of future development. The whole cycle is modeled to determine possible responses of the steel industry in light of the circular economy concept. If per-capita stock saturates at 8-12 tons as evidence from industrialized countries suggests, consumption may peak between 2015 and 2020, whereupon it is likely to drop by up to 40\% until 2050. A slower growing in-use stock could mitigate this peak and hence reduce overcapacity in primary production. Old scrap supply will increase substantially and it could replace up to 80\% of iron ore as resource for steel making by 2050. This would require advanced recycling technologies as manufacturers of machinery and transportation equipment would have to shift to secondary steel as well as new capacities in secondary production which could, however, make redundant already existing integrated steel plants.
More Information
http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es201904c

Tags

Back

This website provides meta data on papers and other publications, with links to the original publications. These papers may be copyrighted or otherwise protected by the publishing journal or author. Some journals provide open access to their publications. When possible we will try to include abstracts and more details for open access publications. For more details, follow the link to the original document and/or contact the publisher/author.